What This Chart Shows
This chart shows how much marketing "signal" (e.g. spend or effort) is needed to reach different parts of your audience. The left panel is a histogram that shows how many people (nodes) need a low, medium, or high "activation threshold" to be reached. The right is a saturation curve: as you increase signal strength, how many people you reach in total (cumulative). Together you see both the distribution of difficulty (who is easy vs hard to reach) and how reach builds as you add more signal. A threshold line shows how many nodes are reached at a chosen signal level.
Key Questions This Chart Helps Answer
- How much signal does it take to reach my audiences?
- How is "difficulty to reach" distributed across the audience?
- At a given signal level, what share of the audience have I reached?
- Where does reach flatten (full saturation)?
Axes, Metrics, and Units
Element | Description |
|---|---|
| Left panel (histogram) X-axis | Activation threshold. Resistance value (signal level). |
| Left panel (histogram) Y-axis | Node count: Number of nodes (e.g. audience units) in each histogram bin. |
| Left panel histogram bar color | Gradient by threshold (low to high resistance). Visual cue for easy vs hard to reach. |
| Right panel (saturation curve) X-axis | Signal strength required. Same resistance values, sorted ascending. |
| Right panel (saturation curve) Y-axis | Cumulative audience. Count of nodes reached (nodes with resistance less than or equal to that x). Starts at 1 and goes to V (total nodes). |
| Threshold line | Vertical line at a chosen threshold; annotation gives "Threshold = X → Reach = Y (Z%)". Default threshold = median resistance if not set. |
| Vertical dashed lines | Dashed vertical lines on the right panel at Q1 (25th), Median (50th), Q3 (75th) percentiles of resistance. |
| Full-saturation annotation | Text at top of right panel: "Full saturation at signal >= [max resistance]." |
Control Options Reference
Note: This chart does not use event categories, funnel stages, grouping mode, or outcome group.
How to Interpret the Results
- Histogram (left): Peaks show where most of your audience sits in terms of "how much signal they need." Shift right = audience is harder to reach on average; shift left = easier to reach.
- Saturation curve (right): Steep rise = adding signal quickly gains reach; flattening = diminishing reach per unit of signal (saturation). The top is full saturation (all nodes reached).
- Threshold line: At the chosen signal level, you see how many nodes are reached and what % of the total. Use it to answer "if I had X level of signal, how much reach do I get?"
- Q1 / Median / Q3: Show where the middle 50% of the audience sits; useful for "typical" signal needed and spread.
- Magnitude: Higher resistance = need more signal to activate that node. The curve is cumulative, so it never decreases.
- Uncertainty: The chart shows modeled resistance and derived reach; it does not show confidence intervals.
Practical Applications for Marketers
Application | How to use this chart |
|---|---|
| Budget and signal planning | Use the saturation curve to see how reach grows with signal; set expectations for "how much spend/effort to reach X%." |
| Audience difficulty | Use the histogram to see if most of the audience is easy or hard to reach; inform channel or creative strategy. |
| Threshold targeting | Use the threshold line to test "at this signal level we reach Y%" for planning or scenario analysis. |
| Mechanistic check | Use both panels to see if the model's reach mechanism (gatekeeper resistance) matches intuition (e.g. steep vs flat saturation). |
| Reporting | Use the curve and "full saturation" note to explain when additional signal stops adding meaningful reach. |
Common Mistakes and Misinterpretations
Mistake | Why it is a problem | How to avoid |
|---|---|---|
| Treating "signal" as raw spend | Axis is modeled resistance/signal from the causal model (gatekeeper), not necessarily dollar spend. | Use axis labels; interpret as "signal strength" from the model unless your pipeline maps it to spend. |
| Reading the curve as time | The x-axis is signal level, not time. Moving right = more signal, not "later in time." | Think "as we increase signal" not "as time passes." |
| Ignoring that it is per-node | "Cumulative audience" is the count of nodes (e.g. audience units in the graph), not necessarily unique people. | Check how V and nodes are defined in your pipeline (e.g. segments, cells, or individuals). |
| Comparing across different graphs | Resistance depends on the causal graph and setup. Different graphs or pipelines give different curves. | Compare only within the same model/graph; do not mix with other systems' reach curves. |
Caveats and Considerations
- Threshold default: If no threshold is provided, the chart uses the median resistance for the threshold line.
- Assumptions: Interpretation assumes that "activation threshold" and "signal strength" match your intended meaning (e.g. spend, impressions, or another driver). Use with other diagnostics and business context.